A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."